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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES

| June 23rd, 2017 | Comments Off on MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES

Financial markets are in a most peculiar place: standstill. This last week extended the June freeze: the 10-year T-note this week traded between 2.19% and 2.14%, mortgages not moving at all, very close to 4.00%; and the S&P500 stayed between 2435 and 2447. The period of exceptionally low volatility goes all the way back to […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – December 2, 2016

| December 2nd, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – December 2, 2016

The interest-rate fever has broken for the moment. The 10-year T-note touched a two-year high yesterday at 2.45%, mortgages 4.25%. Both improved a bit today despite news which should have pushed them higher: good November jobs, ISM manufacturing index to an 18-month high, and an improbable OPEC deal and oil $50+. We may get a […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 18, 2016

| November 18th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 18, 2016

The US 10-year T-note is rising in yield again, now 2.35%, up a half-percent since election day. Mortgages are rising accordingly, close to 4.125%. Did Donald Trump do that? We have some recent experience with black swan events, but not with a bird sporting an orange comb-over. Part One: A global move up in long-term […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 11, 2016

| November 11th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 11, 2016

Now put all of the other stuff aside, and consider the wreck in the bond market. Ignore stocks. In this circumstance they have neither predictive nor economic power. The signals and economic effects are all in bonds. On the morning of Election Day, the 10-year T-note traded 1.83%. The day after: it opened at 1.95% […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 4, 2016

| November 4th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – November 4, 2016

Long-term rates have dropped to a two-week low, the 10-year T-note to 1.77% and mortgages again close to 3.50%. Pushing down on those rates: Tuesday anxiety. No avoiding it. Oh, oil has crashed back to $44/bbl, removing inflation fear. Five minutes at $50/bbl and the world tried to sell all at once. Today’s job data […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 28, 2016

| October 28th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 28, 2016

Long-term interest rates rose this week, pushed by two forces: first — ick — some good economic news, the bane of all in the bond market, and second by policy change underway at the ECB and BOJ. The definitive 10-year T-note has reached a ticklish spot, 1.85%, low-fee mortgages just above 3.50%. If 10s break […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 21, 2016

| October 21st, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 21, 2016

Long-term rates slid suspiciously this week — still in-range, but an up-trend based on Fed threats has stopped dead. Markets got little new data to chew on, core CPI if anything dipping (up only 0.1% in September), housing starts and sales continuing a slow-ish pattern. Many in markets mention a trading pause caused by politics, […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 14, 2016

| October 14th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 14, 2016

Long-term rates stayed in their new range this week, only about 0.20% above the July-September one. New economic data do not show acceleration in the US economy, not in any element. Maybe slowing, but certainly not accelerating. Nevertheless, more rate-hike smoke is drifting near the Fed. Remember on pool day at elementary school following schoolmates […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 7, 2016

| October 7th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – October 7, 2016

Long term rates are rising, the 10-year T-note this week at 1.74% the highest since a June spike, and the sustained February-May range 1.70%-1.95%. So far the consequences to mortgages are minor, maybe not even headed toward 3.75% from the long rest at 3.50%. Why long-term rates have risen is going to take some explaining, […]

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Credit News by Lou Barnes – September 30, 2016

| September 30th, 2016 | Comments Off on Credit News by Lou Barnes – September 30, 2016

Last week the 10-year T-note returned to its July to early-September range, 1.50%-1.60% and holding mortgages near 3.50%. Today the market is testing the top, and next Friday’s job data will be definitive. Helping rates to stay down: more negative data from August, personal income slow, spending flat; core PCE inflation 1.7% year-over-year and decelerating, […]

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