In the early ’70s we used to say to each other, especially when embarking on a questionable adventure, “When the going gets weird, the weird get going!” Get going out there. The dominant economic/financial commentary has us in strengthening recovery, and a serious minority says we are near new recession. Both are correct and mistaken. [...]
Markets are quiet, volatility gone, waiting for something to happen. Not calm, plenty tense, a lot happening but not concluding. The overriding influence near-term: The Battle of 1370. What, Europe again? The English and French refighting some unpleasantness between Crecy and Agincourt? Nah. Every stock trader on the planet is mesmerized by S&P500 1370. Go [...]
Gradually improving US economic data and a Greek deal of some sort have relieved immediate financial fears, and so bond and mortgage rates have risen. The rate increase is proportional to the relief. 10-year T-notes have moved from 1.92% to 2.02%, and mortgages from just under 4.00% to just under 4.125%, roughly like your kid’s [...]
The game of Grecian Chicken flaps and clucks on, Greece near default and leaving the euro, which would ruin its economy; and Europe withholding new money until Greece agrees to austerity that will ruin its economy. The 10-year T-note yield needs no scary help from Europe to stay low. The Fed’s “Operation Twist,” swapping short [...]
In a double surprise, the job market may at last have begun to revive, but the double-the-forecast, 243,000-job surge in January has done little harm to mortgages. We are still near 4.00%; 10-year T-notes up from 1.82%, but holding nicely at 1.95%. Ordinarily a payroll jump like this would have killed us, especially in combination [...]
“‘Stranger and stranger’, said Alice,” and so it was this week at the Fed, in Europe, and Mr. Obama’s State of the Union. Some brave souls thought the Fed would surprise by rolling out QE3, and begin to buy more MBS, driving mortgage rates down. Everyone expected a pair of meaningless inside-Fed jokes (more transparency, [...]
More positive US data and relaxation of European frights have combined for higher interest rates and support for Wall Street’s warm-fuzzy machine. One week ago, downgraded credit in Europe and another failure in Greek debt negotiations had taken the 10-year T-note to 1.85% and big-equity refis a hair below 4.00%. Today, nothing is resolved in [...]
The one bright spot in the world is the resilience of the US economy, not re-entering the recession so widely forecast last fall, and so far impervious to events in Europe. However, the failure of leadership in Europe, and here — hell, everywhere — seems to be coming together in another chaotic moment. There is [...]
It is an election year. In addition to the distorted economic “analysis” offered by the ever-cheerful stock-market channels, CNBC and Bloomberg, all year long this year political interests will add their garbled gabble. Today’s reports of 200,000 new jobs in December and unemployment down from 8.7% to 8.5% were greeted with happy bugles from the [...]
A New Year begins next week, and it is time for my annual dodge. Peter Drucker, one of the world’s few worthwhile business theorists: “Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a good grasp of the present.” This year, no flinching from predicting. Why such foolish courage? In several econo-political arenas we [...]
Copyright © Premier Mortgage Group. All rights reserved. To check license status of your mortgage broker visit
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org. Loan products are not available outside of Colorado. NMLS Company ID #3001.