In the last 24 hours long-term rates have pulled back from the brink of panic. The first leg down came as thinking replaced short-selling: the Fed does not want to abort the mini-maybe-recovery underway. The second leg, overnight Thursday-Friday came with safety buying after the US announced it will intervene in Syria. Somebody today with [...]
Early this week a spate of poor data started a bond and mortgage rally, but stopped cold today on a very ordinary employment report for May. 10-year T-notes have traded back up to the 2.15% high of 2013, mortgages solidly above 4.00%. If the credit markets are going to read news this way, rates are [...]
Tough, strange week. On Tuesday the trading and investment world returned from golf and beaches with one thought in mind: sell bonds. No new data, no new Fed talk, blow out the 10-year T-note’s Feb-Mar 2.05% high to 2.15%, and 2.19% today. Mortgages are above 4.00% for the first time in more than a year, [...]
During the Inquisition, the first step in extracting a confession or recantation of heresy was to show the accused the instruments to be used in the next stage. A glance at tongs, or the rack, and many would sing on the spot. So it was this week. The Fed inflicted no pain at all, just [...]
Interest rates on long-term bonds and mortgages have stopped their May rise, a little above the halfway mark of the low and high for the year. The tilt seems to be upward, but the trading pattern has been chaotic and artificial, trading on guesses at the Fed’s intentions to continue, trim, or stop QE3 bond-buying. [...]
In a week without economic news, markets very quiet, take time for the foibles, flights, fantasies, and filberts of public policy and human nature. Whenever the hard right and hard left agree, duck and cover. One example: the right and left both want to intervene in Syria. The right confuses war with video games, and [...]
Deep breath. This morning’s news of a better job market has pushed 10-year Treasury yields from 1.63% to 1.73% overnight, and intercepted the mortgage move below 3.50%. Stocks of course to a new high, Dow above 15000. Breathe again. The job market is not really better, just not as poor as could have been — [...]
A lot of movement under the covers. Although few sounds, nobody talking, most of the lumps are recognizable. Long-term rates have fallen here and everywhere since late March, and have taken a new leg down today, US10s to 1.67% for the first time since December. Some of today’s move may be “event risk” bond-buying to [...]
We have since the Great Recession began in 2007 been buttonholed by commentators of all kinds arguing about what is happening to us, and debating risks and remedies in a situation without precedent. Perhaps the dominant thread has been those insisting that inflation will be the inevitable consequence of central banks’ efforts to save the [...]
More soggy data have confirmed the poor jobs report for March, and so we’ve held on to the interest rate improvement set last week. However, some good news is on the way, one of the few kinds that will tend to hold rates down, legitimate good news. The NFIB survey of small business fell in [...]
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